eCommerce Trends to Prepare for This Holiday Season (in 2024)

For many eCommerce brands, the holiday season is one of the busiest and most impactful times of the year - but it can also be one of the most challenging.

For conscious brands, meeting consumer demand while staying true to their values and sustainability commitments is an added challenge. One central element of this balancing act is deciding how to manage packaging and order fulfillment in an effective, eco-conscious way.

We’ve navigated uncertain holiday seasons for three years, and 2024 also comes with uncertainties. With a major election period and continued economic and geopolitical instability, knowing how to prepare your brand for success can be difficult.

In this article, we'll guide you through the essential steps to prepare your sustainable eCommerce brand for the 2024 holiday season. We'll focus on leveraging packaging to meet your goals without sacrificing your brand’s commitment to sustainability.

Understanding the 2024 Holiday Shopping Landscape

Here are some top emerging trends to consider when developing your brand’s 2024 holiday strategy.

Consumers Likely to Spread Spending Across The Season

Back-to-school shopping trends are often a harbinger of what is to come for retailers during the same holiday season. 

Back-to-school shopping started early this year and will likely finish late. As of early July, more than half (55%) of back-to-school and college shoppers have already begun buying items for the upcoming school year. However, most shoppers (86%) still have at least half of their purchases left to complete at the start of August as they await great deals and finalize what they need to purchase.

The spread out spending is likely driven by shopper desire to take advantage of deals and their need to spread this spending spike across several months.

Holiday spending could see similar trends, with shopping starting early but many leaving a large portion of their purchases to BFCM and December deals.

Applying This Trend: Spread out your deals, product launches, and marketing tactics throughout the season, from mid-September through mid-December.

For example:

• Consider monthly or weekly launches of new products to keep your customers coming back to your site.

• Add discount codes, sample packs, and other promotions to the orders you ship during September and October to compel these early buyers to purchase more from you later in the season.

• Make your return program very easy and compelling, or offer “satisfaction guarantees” to best capture early shoppers who will have time to take advantage of these incentives.

• When planning your promotions calendar, sprinkle a variety of discounts (product, buy one get one free, shipping promos, etc.) throughout October, November, and December.

Consumers Are Prioritizing Discounts and Shopping Low-Cost Marketplaces

Many households feel the impact of tightened budgets and adjust their spending habits accordingly.

In one survey, more than half of customers said they would prioritize shopping for sales and discounts to save money. As a result, discount marketplaces such as Temu and Shein will continue to be popular.

Additionally, Black Friday Cyber Monday (BFCM) continues to reign for e-commerce brands during this budget-conscious time. Two-thirds of shoppers hold out on making big purchases until Cyber Week, anticipating better deals. 65% of shoppers say Black Friday has the year's best discounts.

Applying This Trend: Strategic discounts can help your brand attract some price-conscious customers - but for many brands, it won’t be possible to compete on cost alone. Instead, lean into your differentiating factors while offering thoughtful discounts that don’t destroy your profitability.

For example:

• Share your genuine sustainability efforts and emphasize your product attributes.

• Highlight your products’ quality and durability.

• Where applicable, include differentiating language, such as minority-owned, fair trade, ethically sourced, independently produced, Made in the USA, etc.

• Add additional value with product samples or bundles with larger orders.

• Review your cost of goods and profit margin, calculate the Lifetime Value (LTV) of acquired customers, and determine how much discount you can offer while running a profitable business. Use this to develop discounts and promotional offers. While these should kick off early in the season, save your most appealing discounts and offers for Black Friday and Cyber Monday, with deal deadlines that encourage shoppers to purchase by the end of Cyber Monday.

Consumer Spending Projections Vary, But Many Believe Overall Spending Will be Lower This Year

Since 2022, online order volumes have been decreasing—the Salesforce Shopping Index showed a 2% year-over-year drop in quarter one of 2024. 47% of surveyed shoppers say they plan to spend the same as last year, and 40% plan to spend less.

Early data on back-to-school shopping, often used as an indicator for the holiday season, supports this trend. This year, back-to-school shopping is projected to decrease slightly compared to 2023.

On the other hand, many researchers predict a relatively resilient 2024 holiday shopping season after seeing stronger-than-expected spending last year (with 4% year-over-year growth in November 2023).

Applying This Trend: While projections conflict, most suggest that spending patterns will not differ wildly from 2023. Given this, when forecasting your 2024 holiday sales, review your brand’s buying trends for this year compared to last year. Have your sales been above or below these same months in 2023? Have your average order volumes increased or decreased?

Look for ways to increase spending and your average order value. For example, could you include a free sample or offer complimentary gift wrapping for orders over a certain amount?

Customers Are Taking On More Consumer Debt

As costs rise, many buyers are taking on more debt, including non-housing debt like credit cards and other retail spending. Many consumers will be looking to use credit to spread out the burden of holiday spending.

Applying This Trend: If your brand does not offer a “Buy Now, Pay Later” option at checkout, consider implementing it through the holiday season.

Popular Buy Now, Pay Later partners include:

• Klarna
• Shop Pay (for Shopify stores)
• Affirm
• Afterpay
• Sezzle
• Splitit
• PayPal

Generative AI is Playing a Larger Role in Shopping

Generative and predictive AI will significantly impact shopping during the 2024 holiday season by enhancing personalization, customization, and customer engagement. AI-powered recommendation engines and virtual shopping assistants will deliver hyper-personalized experiences, helping consumers find products tailored to their tastes.

Immersive experiences, such as virtual try-ons, chatbots, and interactive marketing, will be more prevalent, allowing customers to engage with products innovatively. AI-driven demand forecasting and dynamic back-end pricing may help brands optimize supply chains and inventory management.

Applying This Trend: To optimize your brand’s searchability, audit your product pages, images, and copy for clear, accurate descriptions and quality visuals.

Consider implementing AI-powered experiences like virtual try-ons, automated chatbots, or quizzes for personalized product recommendations.

Shipping Disruptions are Likely, With More Issues in the Middle Mile

Drought, war, labor issues, and limited infrastructure can negatively affect shipping times. Situations such as the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, which continue to lead freight companies to choose lower-risk (but significantly longer) shipping routes, as well as rising crude oil prices, are driving up container costs worldwide, leading to “middle mile” shipping concern we haven’t seen in recent years. And while the shippagaden of 2020 is behind us, last-mile challenges are also stacking up thanks to events like the Francis Scott Key Bridge collapse, hurricanes, fires, and small carrier cost structures – stalling delivery times and adding expenses for retailers.

As holiday order volumes increase, delays may become more common—particularly for overseas inventory shipping into the US during August, September, and October. Additionally, last-mile delivery may become more delayed and pricier than brands have seen in previous years.

Applying This Trend: Order your suppliers and product inventory well in advance to build a cushion into your delivery time, particularly if you purchase your goods or suppliers overseas. Consider monitoring and adjusting shipping projections on your website to help avoid customer frustration.

While express shipping sometimes raises concerns about increased carbon emissions, you may offer this option at the end of the holiday season for last-minute shoppers. If doing so, partner with a trusted carbon offsetting company to mitigate negative effects.

A Major Election Season Will Impact Spending and Could Hinder Marketing

The 2020 election season saw a dip in holiday spending leading up to. After election day, spending patterns around 2024’s election are expected to follow the same trend, with the potential for even greater swings in spending (given that the 2020 election happened at a time of continued social distancing, leading to significantly higher overall online spending).

Many consumers feel uncertain and may even delay shopping until after the election.

Additionally, consumers will be inundated with election-related messages, making capturing their attention more difficult than ever.

Applying This Trend: Expect disruptions or dips as the election progresses. Again, start your campaigns earlier to capitalize on a slightly calmer September and early October period. Anticipate a slowdown in late October through mid-November and a pickup after that.

Look for non-digital opportunities to capture your customers’ attention, particularly during the weeks closest to Election Day. For example, consider in-person promotional events, establish partnerships with like-minded (but non-competitive) brands, offer giveaways and samples in their outbound shipments, or send snail mail offers and promos to your existing customer base.

More Consumers Are Considering Sustainability

A survey by Optimove Insights found that 79% of consumers are considering sustainability in their holiday shopping, up 61% from 2023. Additionally, 76% are willing to pay more for eco-friendly products, a 57% increase from 2023.

Many shoppers are looking for more value in each purchase, and sustainability can be important in determining which products to buy.

Applying This Trend: Ensure your sustainability messaging is precise, current, and positioned center-stage. Make it easy for buyers to know how your products align with their values.

You may include sustainability messaging in your:

• Website copy (including your homepage and landing pages)
• Email campaigns
• Social media content
• Packaging (shipping and primary)
• Blog and educational content
• Paid advertising

If you haven’t tried our complimentary We Care Cards, consider adding them to your holiday packages. This helps reinforce your brand’s sustainability for both the giver and recipient and can create opportunities for more word-of-mouth marketing.

Transparent Marketing and Eco Claims Are Critical

Consumers are increasingly wary of greenwashing and demand authenticity.

Also, regulations aimed at preventing greenwashing are becoming increasingly strict. We’re seeing more ESG initiatives, anti-greenwashing guidelines, and directives for sustainable packaging.

Applying This Trend: As you share your sustainability efforts, ensure that any claims you make can be verified and, if applicable, backed up with data.

Social Media Will Continue to Drive Discovery and Purchase

Social media will continue to powerfully influence consumer behavior during the 2024 holiday season, driving discovery and purchases. Platforms like TikTok are increasingly becoming the go-to places for consumers to discover new products, driven heavily by targeted ads and influencer recommendations.

The convenience of making purchases directly within social media apps has streamlined the shopping process, making it easier for consumers to buy products without leaving their feeds.

This trend is expected to grow in 2024 as more retailers integrate shoppable content, recognizing that consumers are not just browsing but also buying through these platforms.

Applying This Trend: Continue investing in engaging, visually appealing content and partnerships with influencers to capture your audience's attention. Additionally, look for ways to collaborate with micro-influencers (those with smaller but highly engaged followings) as a cost-effective way to reach niche audiences. Finally, integrate your store with your most highly engaged social media platforms and then utilize shoppable posts to enable direct purchases within social media apps.

Planning Your Inventory Strategically

Over the past four years, the online world has grappled with many ups and downs.

Uncertainty about how much to order led to massive spikes in out-of-stock products in 2020, followed by a commitment to buy more and buy early and a subsequent overstock in 2021. More recently, 2022 and 2023 saw more muted predictions and ordering patterns.

Based on our research, the 2024 holiday season will look similar to 2023. This year’s two biggest uncertainties are a significant election season and the increased market share of discount shops like Temu.

Despite these unknowns, you can take steps to manage inventory thoughtfully. Here are three strategies to remember while planning for holiday order fulfillment.

1. Do What You Can to Forecast and Prepare for Demand

Get the best information you can. Look at your brand’s past holiday numbers, particularly your 2023 data. Based on your planned marketing efforts, you may dial your 2023 order volume up or down. You may also want to look at overall industry trends and shopping data.

Meet with your supply chain partners. Work to develop the most favorable purchasing agreement possible for both sides. Your vendors are eager to retain and grow business during the holiday season. Some may be open to creative strategies to help you manage risk, cash, and the fear of excess inventory. For example:

• Can you extend your terms to manage variable cash flow?
• Can you establish an open Purchase Order with a flexible time horizon?

Review your entire portfolio of supplies and products. Ensure you have a purchasing and inventory strategy for each and set contingency plans for what you’ll do if a certain item is sold out or overstocked. For example, are there certain packaging items you can substitute if you run out of another item during a rush of sales?

2. Developing a Balanced Ordering Strategy

While you want to avoid having large amounts of overstock, running out of products is also undesirable, particularly if you go out of stock early in the season. This can not only harm your sales but also impact your brand image.

The ideal outcome is to have a modest amount of excess product left at the end of the season that you can sell after the holidays (at a discounted rate if needed).

Most brands will combine advanced and just-in-time ordering to achieve this balance.

Advance Ordering: Order larger quantities ahead of time.

• Pros: Reduces supply chain issues, shortens fulfillment time
• Cons: Requires more cash up front, can lead to an overstock, more storage space needed

Just-in-Time (JIT) Supply Chain: Order products and packaging as you need them or order smaller quantities throughout the season.

• Pros: Reduces cash needed up front, reduces risk of overstock, less warehouse or storage space needed
• Cons: Can lead to longer fulfillment times, may result in supply shortages or disruptions

Almost all brands will need to do some advance ordering, particularly if buying from overseas or using any custom product/packaging.

To decide how much to order in advance, consider questions such as:

• How much did we order in 2023? Did we have too much? Not enough?

• How much of a marketing push will we make this year? Will we need more inventory on hand to accommodate peak demand during campaigns?

• How long after the holidays can we sell excess products? Can we continue selling into Q1/Q1 of 2025? If so, consider ordering more. If not, consider ordering less.

After determining your advance ordering needs, explore just-in-time or quick-fulfillment options you can use if your sales are outpacing your forecast.

For example, you may select stock, pre-printed, or semi-custom packaging, which you can use as a backup if you run out of custom packaging earlier than expected.

3. Avoid Overproduction and Waste

The holidays see more waste than any other time of the year, both on the consumer and brand sides. You can help reduce your brand’s footprint by avoiding overproduction and thoughtfully managing any excess.

Using the strategies above can help you reduce the risk of having an overstock of holiday packaging and avoid the risk of it going out of stock.

Designing A Holiday Packaging Strategy that Elevates Your Brand in An Increasingly Competitive and Value-conscious Marketplace

With another uncertain holiday season approaching, you can use your packaging to reach more customers and make the most of marketing opportunities - particularly since the holiday season allows you to reach both the giver and receiver of gifts and those they tell about the experience.

Packaging is more than just how you get your products to your customer’s doorstep. It’s often the first physical interaction customers have with your brand and can make or break the first impression.

To help your brand stand out, consider these three critical areas when developing a holiday packaging strategy.

Choose the Right Amount of Customization

In general, your brand can take three directions with your holiday packaging: custom branding, pre-printed holiday designs, or standard stock packaging.

If you’re looking to make a splash in a sea of bland Amazon boxes (or “hauls” filled with unneeded packaging waste), you may want to consider custom or pre-printed packaging.

If you need to cut costs or increase your margins, stock packaging augmented with some pre-printed or custom extras may be a good option.

Here’s a quick look at each strategy.

Custom Branded Packaging

Custom designs can create a unique holiday experience. Your brand may develop a custom design specifically for the holidays, using both seasonal elements and your brand aesthetic. You may create custom holiday shipping boxes, protective packaging, or product packaging.

• Advantages: More opportunity for brand awareness and word-of-mouth marketing, makes packaging feel high-value and memorable

• Drawbacks: The most costly option, requires planning and ordering in advance, and makes it more difficult to use excess packaging after the holidays.

Pre-Printed Holiday Designs

Pre-printed holiday designs can add a festive touch without the cost of full customization. EcoEnclose offers printed holiday packaging lines with various seasonal designs for products like shipping boxes, tissue, and notecards. 

• Advantages: More affordable than custom holiday packaging, creates a fun seasonal touch, and has quicker fulfillment times than branded packaging.

• Drawbacks: Less opportunity for brand recognition, less customization

Standard Stock Packaging

Smaller brands or those prioritizing cost during the holidays may use their usual stock packaging. However, you can still use seasonal elements like holiday-themed stickers or ribbons to add a festive feel.

• Advantages: Most cost-effective option, fastest order fulfillment, easy to use overstock after the holidays

• Drawbacks: Less brand awareness, less of a festive feel

You may also choose to use a combination of these three styles.

For example:

Brand A places an order for custom shipping boxes, tissue paper, and branded holiday notecards. Since these products have shorter fulfillment times, they plan to use pre-printed holiday designs as a backup if they sell more than expected.

Brand B orders custom holiday mailers and uses our pre-printed cards and tissue to add extra detail to their holiday package at a lower cost than full customization.

Brand C uses our pre-printed holiday shipping boxes, note cards, and tissue to create a festive feel that fits their budget.

Brand D uses standard stock packaging but adds pre-printed holiday notecards from EcoEnclose and reusable fabric ribbons around its products.

If you’re not sure which path will be best for your brand this year, contact us. We’re happy to help you plan the most effective holiday packaging strategy!

Creating a Thoughtful Unboxing Experience

Many consumers are feeling the weight of socioeconomic uncertainty and are looking for easy, high-value holiday purchases that fit within their budgets.

One way to appeal to these customers is to create a beautiful, enjoyable unboxing experience. This allows gift-givers to send or give their purchase to the recipient as-is without the added hassle of gift-wrapping.

Curating a unique and thoughtful packaging design can also differentiate your brand from high-volume, low-cost retailers like Temu and Amazon.

Here are five tips from our guide to a sustainable unboxing experience.

1. Make your packaging easy to open. Use tape thoughtfully on boxes, and consider using tear strips on your mailers. When you pack your products, add them in a way that will protect them from damage when packages are opened.

2. Use personal touches. Your package may include a printed notecard, a handwritten note, or even a joke or inspirational quote.

3. Encourage reuse and recycling. Tell customers how to properly dispose of your packaging or show them ways to reuse it—this will reinforce your brand’s commitment to sustainability!

4. Add layers to extend the unboxing. Use products like tissue, SpiroPack, or even greenery to create layers—layer with the most exciting product at the bottom.

5. Share your brand’s eco-efforts. For example, you may include a QR code linking to your impact page or a label like “Made with 100% Recycled Content.”

We’ve helped hundreds of brands create unique unboxing strategies. If you need additional guidance, we’re here to help!

Prioritizing Sustainable Materials and Design

Whatever packaging strategy you use during the holidays, you can stay true to your brand’s sustainability commitment throughout the process.

As more consumers look for greener options for holiday gifts, conscious packaging is a simple way to communicate your brand’s values to potential buyers.

Sustainable packaging includes many factors, but here are a few key points to consider as you develop your strategy.

1. Maximize recycled content. Recycled content in your holiday packaging helps promote a more robust supply chain for recycled materials. It also reduces the need for virgin materials - and your brand’s footprint.

2. Optimize for packaging recyclability. Choose readily recyclable materials, ideally those that can be recycled curbside. You can also improve recyclability by matching the materials of additions like stickers and labels to the packaging substrate.

3. Avoid excess material. When creating a holiday unboxing experience, avoid going overboard with too many layers or materials. If you want to reduce material use further, consider downgauging packaging thickness when possible.

4. Use eco-friendlier inks. At a minimum, use water—or soy-based color inks. If your design is black, choose regenerative Black Algae Ink™ to sequester carbon emissions.

5. Prepare to navigate trade-offs. For example, you may opt for lighter recycled poly mailers rather than a shipping box if you’re looking to reduce costs or lower your transportation emissions.

Are you new to the world of sustainable packaging? Explore our Sustainable Packaging Framework for an overview of how EcoEnclose is working toward greater packaging circularity.

Your Holiday Packaging Strategy Matters

Thoughtful packaging decisions are crucial for your brand’s success through the holidays and beyond.

By understanding current trends, planning strategically, and designing impactful packaging, you can create a memorable and effective holiday experience for your customers. And by prioritizing sustainability throughout the process, you can create a positive impact for good along the way.

Whether you have an existing sustainable packaging strategy or are embarking on this journey for the first time during the holiday season, we’re here as a resource. You can explore our extensive library of educational materials, order a sample kit, or contact us for more information and personalized guidance.

Packaging is more than a necessity—it’s a chance to reinforce your brand’s values and make a lasting impression. Make it count this holiday season.